Thursday, July 28, 2005

Complexity

Do you run away from complexity? Is your life too complex?

Most people try to simplify their lives. This is good because people gain clarity. This is because the human mind can only focus n very few things at a time. It cannot grasp and comprehend all variables that affect our daily lives.

But Mother Nature isnt a simplified being that we can simplify so that we can understand Her. Mother Nature is complexity in motion. Every perturbation has consequences, it has a ripple effect in time and space.

Meet Dr. Jacek Marczyk. Dr. Marczyk has over twenty years of experience in Computer Aided Engineering. During the last eight years he has published four books on stochastic and non-linear mechanics and has introduced to the market two industrial software tools for large-scale stochastic simulation: ST-ORM in 1998 and MSC Software´s MSC.Robust Design in 2003. He is regarded as one of the pioneers of large-scale
stochastic simulation, and in the late 1990s has introduced it to the automotive industry for car crash applications. He has also developed novel approaches to stochastic model validation.

Jacek is a good friend of mine. He is a man passionate about complexity. Talk to him and you will get lost in his knowledge. He is very knowledgeable person and is someone who is constantly expanding his knowledge. Jacek loves to talk about complexity and tries to see the patterns that complexity brings.

In engineering, something that I am familiar with, there are a lot of variables that can affect the final product. Engineers have long tried to use the DOE (Design of Experiments) method to simplify their model and focus on what they think are the key features. But what if their wrong? This boils down to experience.

Jacek proposes the Stochastic Method where all variables are taken into account using the Latin Hypercube method. In this manner, all possibilities are investigated and none left to chance. The Monte Carlo method investigates complexity by mixing up all the variables together and trying to see what patterns they make up. It is this pattern that governs the behavior of the final product.

It is in this way that Mother Nature also behaves. She is so complex that hitting a butterfly in Brazil causes a ripple effect that causes a monsoon in Japan.

Interested to learn more? Check out http://www.ontonix.com

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